Scholars have studied the impact of The United States in the future of the Pacific Alliance.
What was Known...
An article published in 2013 studied the benefits and disadvantages of the union of the United States with the Pacific Alliance. Taking into account that U.S already belongs to certain free trade agreements, its membership in the Pacific Alliance would be “consistent with its membership in other regional trade agreements” (Schwartz, 2013). Until 2013, U.S involvement in the PA just limited itself as an observer state. Even though a full membership is not as much probable, it is still an issue that could be discussed in the long run. In fact, according to Schwartz, The united States already fulfilled certain characteristics or prerequisites for an alliance membership: a commitment to free trade; democratic governance; political stability; respect for the rule of law; and, most notably, existing free trade agreements with all alliance member states.
On the bright side, one may agree that U.S membership could benefit the political and economic momentum on the Pacific Alliance. It could also reinforce the “legitimacy of the group—though, to the alliance’s credit, the work it’s done thus far has lent it legitimacy all its own.” (Schwartz, 2013). In the short run, this would send the message that the United States is fully committed and supports Latin American development projects and aims towards economic liberalization. However, some argue that one disadvantage of this alliance can be linked to migration; many fear that the agreement will provide free movement for people among the countries, which will mean that there would be a raise in migration to the United States.
What has Changed...
Years have passed and the future of the relation between the PA and U.S have changed. To begin with, former president Donald Trump could have major implications in the Pacific Alliance.
Scholars have claimed that there exists the possibility that United States, as an observer country in the PA, withdraw from its status. Nonetheless, this is a risky move from the former president from the United States, as it could imply political costs since “there has not been a particularly strong working agenda with the US derived from its position as an observer.” (Palacios, 2017)
In one hand, an alliance towards cooperation between the Pacific Alliance and the United States during Trump’s presidency is low. Nonetheless Trump's’ Presidency represents an opportunity for Mexico to improve and strengthen its economic ties, to diversify its commercial partners with the other PA allies and, consequently, diminish the economic dependency on the US. Hence, this could mean an economic benefit and push the PA outcomes.
Sources
Bloomberg (2016). The Pacific Alliance after Trump - Regional Integration in Latin America. [online] Regional Integration in Latin America. Available at: http://pacificallianceblog.com/pacific-alliance-trumps-election/ [Accessed 29 Apr. 2018].
Meacham, C. (2013). Why Should the United States Join the Pacific Alliance?. [online] Csis.org. Available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-should-united-states-join-pacific-alliance [Accessed 29 Apr. 2018].
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